{"id":8563,"date":"2011-11-09T17:13:32","date_gmt":"2011-11-09T23:13:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=8563"},"modified":"2011-11-09T17:13:32","modified_gmt":"2011-11-09T23:13:32","slug":"ouch-damn-europe-anyway","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/11\/09\/ouch-damn-europe-anyway\/","title":{"rendered":"Ouch! Damn Europe anyway"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>This is Why there are No End Zone Celebrations<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.thereformedbroker.com\/author\/joshua-m-brown\/\">Joshua M Brown<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>November 9th, 2011 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yesterday if you were long, you felt like the king of the world.&#160; Today, as you survey your Empire of Dirt, you want to just die.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday&#8217;s kings cackled as the <strong>market<\/strong> would not let anyone else in, today&#8217;s kings were yesterday&#8217;s court jesters &#8211; juggling negative European outcome assumptions in the hopes we&#8217;d notice.<\/p>\n<p>And that&#8217;s been the story of 2011 thus far, winners and losers switch sides on a weekly or even daily basis.&#160; The fact that anyone &#8211; and I mean <em>anyone<\/em> &#8211; could go from genius to asshole overnight has meant an absence of end zone celebrations, a dearth of football spiking and Icky-shuffling regardless of how the tape finished each session.<\/p>\n<p>Because the shorts know that this <strong>market<\/strong> has a serious tendency to shrug off apocalypse with amazing caprice.&#160; And the bulls know that much of their good fortune this year has stemmed from degrees of less-bad.<\/p>\n<p>So today, the under-invested get a break and can go home feeling somewhat vindicated, but tomorrow?&#160; Too hard to say.&#160; There are a Million Ministers of This or That prancing around Europe and at any given <strong>time<\/strong> <strong>one<\/strong> of them could drunkenly lean into a microphone somewhere and rip a trillion dollars off of the globe&#8217;s <strong>market<\/strong> cap.&#160; Or <strong>one<\/strong> of&#160; these ministers could announce a resignation sending the world&#8217;s stocks shooting higher like a beach ball that&#8217;s been held underwater for too long.<\/p>\n<p>But don&#8217;t you dare do that end zone dance when you find yourself on the right side of this on any given <strong>day<\/strong>, for tomorrow could be your next comeuppance.<\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/\">Home<\/a> \u00bb <a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/category\/mrs\">Most Recent Stories<\/a><\/p>\n<h4>EUROPE\u2019S WORST CASE SCENARIO<\/h4>\n<p>9 NOVEMBER 2011 BY CULLEN ROCHE 0 COMMENTS<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/data.cmcore.com\/imp?tid=17&amp;ci=90379962&amp;vn1=4.1.1&amp;vn2=imp&amp;ec=UTF-8&amp;cm_mmc=InvestingChannel-_-2011%20Frost%20Online-_-Small%20Business%20Rectangle-_-fro11157_phase2_benjamins_300x250_v2\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I can\u2019t even believe <a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/3-euro-debt-crisis-scenarios\">I am re-posting this<\/a>, but given today\u2019s events with discussions of a two tier Euro and Jurgen Stark\u2019s explicit comments about Germany\u2019s (or the ECB\u2019s) refusal to become the lender of last resort, we have to very seriously consider the Euro break-up option. I posted this piece earlier in the year. Danske <a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/europes-worst-case-scenario#\">Bank<\/a> provides a nice overview of the worst case scenario (<a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/3-euro-debt-crisis-scenarios\">see here for more<\/a>):<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIf overall sentiment starts changing and the political will vanishes in either the peripheral countries or the core this could trigger sovereign defaults. The defining event could be if <strong>Italy<\/strong> needs <strong>help<\/strong>, but it could also simply be a change in power following deterioration in the general <strong>support<\/strong> to further belt-tightening in periphery countries and\/or an increase in resistance to further <a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/europes-worst-case-scenario#\">financial<\/a> <strong>support<\/strong> in core countries. Another option that has been mentioned is an actual break-up of the <strong>EMU<\/strong> where all member states leave the euro.<\/p>\n<p>We see the probability of a euro break-up as very low. However, it may still be worth considering some scenarios of how it could take place. There exist different default and break-up scenarios that vary in terms of how serious an impact they would have on the <strong>financial<\/strong> system and economic growth. Common to all of these is that we do not exactly know how they would look as we are entering unchartered waters.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1.<\/strong> The mildest version would be that <strong>one<\/strong>, or maybe a few of the periphery countries default on their <strong>debt<\/strong> resulting in a <strong>debt<\/strong> restructuring. The candidates most in danger of this are Greece, Ireland and Portugal in descending order. It is less clear how this technically would be done. However, this does not automatically mean that they would have to leave the <strong>EMU<\/strong>, just as nobody expects Florida to leave the US should it default.<\/p>\n<p>A sovereign <strong>debt<\/strong> restructuring within the euro area is not necessarily a \u201cquick fix\u201d. If , for example, Greek sovereign <strong>debt<\/strong> is restructured this would result in losses for German and French <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>banks<\/strong> among others, but more importantly it would also result in renewed fears about which other countries could decide to restructure with both <strong>Italy<\/strong> and Belgium being likely candidates for speculative attacks. The <strong>country<\/strong> that defaults would also have to be prepared for a <strong>period<\/strong> with limited access to <strong>financial<\/strong> markets and the default option thus appears most attractive for a high-<strong>debt<\/strong> <strong>country<\/strong> that isn\u2019t far from having a balanced primary budget. A <strong>debt<\/strong> restructuring also does not <strong>help<\/strong> the <strong>country<\/strong> to improve its competitiveness due to the common currency.<\/p>\n<p>Alternatively a periphery <strong>country<\/strong> may decide to leave the <strong>EMU<\/strong> if it deems it too tough to get the <strong>economy<\/strong> out of the doldrums without being able to devalue and regain some competitiveness this way or if internal <strong>public<\/strong> opposition becomes too strong. This is likely to initially cause a bank run in the respective <strong>country<\/strong> due to fear of losses on deposits relative to <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>banks<\/strong> in the core euro area. A capital flight from assets likely to be redenominated should also be expected. The risk of redenomination of the government <strong>debt<\/strong> (from the euro to e.g. the drachma in the hypothetical case of a Greek exit) and expectations of currency depreciation will result in higher sovereign spreads. But if the government decides not to re-denominate, the <strong>debt<\/strong> to GDP ratio will increase, which would put further pressure on fiscal sustainability. It is likely that confidence in the new currency would be so low that the <strong>country<\/strong> could see \u201cdollarization\u201d with euros to be used in parallel to, or instead of, the reintroduced domestic currency.<\/p>\n<p>A way to go would be to undertake an initial depreciation\/devaluation followed by a peg to, for instance, the euro at a much lower level. If the <strong>country<\/strong> doesn\u2019t peg the currency but instead allows it to depreciate further, increasing inflation from imported goods could result in a vicious cycle with increasing inflation and inflation expectations. To defend the peg, sound <strong>public<\/strong> finances have to be combined with high official <a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/europes-worst-case-scenario#\">interest rates<\/a> until confidence in the currency is restored. Confidence in a peg may take years to establish as Denmark experienced after it pegged the currency in 1982 and stopped with occasional devaluations in 1986. It was not until 1991 that the 10-year sovereign spread to Germany tightened to below 1%.<\/p>\n<p>The implications for <strong>financial<\/strong> markets and the global <strong>economy<\/strong> of periphery countries leaving the euro area would depend on the fragility of the <strong>financial<\/strong> system at the <strong>time<\/strong>. Concerns about which other euro area countries may leave could result in a prolonged <strong>period<\/strong> of high volatility and a continuation of the <strong>debt<\/strong> crisis.<\/p>\n<p>We believe that this scenario has a very small likelihood of materialising as the economic cost seems to outweigh the economic benefits \u2013 at least in the short term. However, in the end the decision really depends on <strong>public<\/strong> opinion and political leadership. The scenario can thus not be fully ruled out.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2.<\/strong> Germany leaving the euro. This scenario is very unlikely in our view. But it cannot be completely ruled out if, for example, <strong>public<\/strong> opinion against <strong>financial<\/strong> <strong>support<\/strong> for the periphery countries increases significantly, e.g. if a \u201ctea-party movement\u201d demands that Germany leaves the euro. It could also be triggered by the German constitutional court saying that politicians have gone too far and breached the no bail-out clause. We doubt that the court would do more than issue a warning not to go further though. In any case an objection from the constitutional court does not imply that Germany would have to leave the euro.<\/p>\n<p>If Germany were to leave the euro zone, the D-mark is likely to be in high demand from <strong>day<\/strong> <strong>one<\/strong> and would be expected to appreciate. There would not be any bank runs or capital flight in Germany. However, bank runs could occur in the peripherals as the euro is likely to depreciate relative to the D-mark. Germany would, however, lose competitiveness. The flipside of the coin is that the euro zone would benefit from a much needed increase in competiveness as the euro depreciates. If Germany decides not to denominate its <strong>debt<\/strong> it would benefit from a decline in the <strong>debt<\/strong>-to-GDP ratio. On the other hand German <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>banks<\/strong> and other investors could face substantial losses on their holdings in the rest of the euro area.<\/p>\n<p>Another uncertainty in this scenario is whether other countries would follow Germany. This uncertainly could prevail for quite some <strong>time<\/strong> resulting in higher sovereign spreads and volatility in FX markets. In this scenario there are good arguments for Finland and the Netherlands to consider leaving too. But then we could see a monetary union continuation, with France taking the lead role. We believe that this scenario has a small likelihood of occurring. The costs for Germany of solving the current problems within the <strong>EMU<\/strong> are probably smaller than the costs of leaving and the political will invested in the project clearly weighs against this scenario. But if <strong>Italy<\/strong> needs <strong>help<\/strong> this could be a game     <br \/>changer.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3.<\/strong> The worst-case scenario is a total breakup of the <strong>EMU<\/strong>. This could happen by mutual agreement or as a resulting domino effect if Germany decides to leave. It is likely that some of the core countries would peg their currency to the D-mark. German <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>banks<\/strong> could experience severe losses due to currency depreciation on its holdings as well as potential defaults. A <strong>period<\/strong> of wide sovereign spreads and high volatility in the foreign exchange <strong>market<\/strong> would be expected. Devaluations and expectation of further depreciation could also result in a <strong>period<\/strong> of high inflation in a number of countries. The national central <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>banks<\/strong> would have to set policy rates high to gain credibility.<\/p>\n<p>A break-up of the euro would affect the global <strong>economy<\/strong>, which is <strong>one<\/strong> of the reasons we see both China and Japan as willing to invest in funding for the most indebted countries. The turmoil and uncertainty could lead to severe losses in the <strong>financial<\/strong> sector that would impact the real <strong>economy<\/strong>, as we experienced it during the <strong>financial<\/strong> crisis. In contrast a scenario with a <strong>debt<\/strong> restructuring in Greece and maybe even Ireland would only have minor impact on the global <strong>economy<\/strong> as long as other member states can maintain their credibility. Since we believe a break-up is very unlikely we are not particularly worried about the impact of the <strong>debt<\/strong> crisis on the outlook for the global <strong>economy<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>In any of the default\/break-up scenarios, risk premia could be expected go up for some <strong>time<\/strong>. This would result in increases in swap spreads and an overall increase in credit spreads, as the current collateralisation and expectations to future collateralisation disappear.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is Why there are No End Zone Celebrations Joshua M Brown November 9th, 2011 <\/p>\n<p>Yesterday if you were long, you felt like the king of the world.&#160; Today, as you survey your Empire of Dirt, you want to just die.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday&#8217;s kings cackled as the market would not let anyone else in, today&#8217;s kings were yesterday&#8217;s court jesters &#8211; juggling negative European outcome assumptions in the hopes we&#8217;d notice.<\/p>\n<p>And that&#8217;s been the story of 2011 thus far, winners and losers switch sides on a weekly or even daily basis.&#160; The fact that anyone &#8211; and I mean anyone &#8211; could go from genius to asshole overnight has meant an absence of end zone celebrations, a dearth of football spiking and Icky-shuffling regardless of <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/11\/09\/ouch-damn-europe-anyway\/\">&#8220;And Now the Rest of the Story &#8211; &#8220;Ouch! Damn Europe anyway<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","odd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ouch! 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And that&#8217;s been the story of 2011 thus far, winners and losers switch sides on a weekly or even daily basis.&#160; The fact that anyone &#8211; and I mean anyone &#8211; could go from genius to asshole overnight has meant an absence of end zone celebrations, a dearth of football spiking and Icky-shuffling regardless of &quot;And Now the Rest of the Story - &quot;Ouch! 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And that&#8217;s been the story of 2011 thus far, winners and losers switch sides on a weekly or even daily basis.&#160; The fact that anyone &#8211; and I mean anyone &#8211; could go from genius to asshole overnight has meant an absence of end zone celebrations, a dearth of football spiking and Icky-shuffling regardless of \"And Now the Rest of the Story - \"Ouch! 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One side says, \u201chang in there, stocks over the long run will grow at better than normal rates \u2013 better than\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8005,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/10\/04\/are-we-there-yet-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":8563,"position":1},"title":"Are we there yet?","author":"wd0ajg","date":"October 4, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Looking at all the down days and where we are in the market I would suspect that it will have to have a turn in direction soon. \u00a0Will it be an up market for any time - that I really doubt but we should get a month or two (maybe\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3502,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/11\/25\/happy-thanksgiving-to-all\/","url_meta":{"origin":8563,"position":2},"title":"Happy Thanksgiving to all!","author":"wd0ajg","date":"November 25, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaFor other uses, see\u00a0Thanksgiving (disambiguation).Thanksgiving DayObserved byCanada,\u00a0United StatesTypeNationalDate2nd Monday in October (Canada) 4th Thursday in November (U.S.)2010 dateOctober 11, 2010 (Canada);November 25, 2010 (U.S.)2011 dateOctober 10, 2011 (Canada);November 24, 2011 (U.S.)Thanksgiving Day\u00a0is a\u00a0harvest festival\u00a0celebrated primarily in the\u00a0United States\u00a0and\u00a0Canada. 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Investment mismatch is where money that is earmarked for the short term is invested in a long term strategy and vice versa.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5203,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/03\/06\/the-lessons-of-history\/","url_meta":{"origin":8563,"position":4},"title":"&#8216;The Lessons of History\u2019","author":"wd0ajg","date":"March 6, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Shortly after 'Pearl Harbor' the editors of the Post wrote to famed historian, Charles Beard requesting that he do a series of articles about 'The Lessons of History.' 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