{"id":5192,"date":"2011-03-02T23:42:41","date_gmt":"2011-03-03T05:42:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=5192"},"modified":"2011-03-02T23:42:41","modified_gmt":"2011-03-03T05:42:41","slug":"are-we-headed-for-a-train-wreck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/03\/02\/are-we-headed-for-a-train-wreck\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we headed for a Train Wreck?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>In reading my list of financial blogs this came up from <a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/who-will-buy-the-bonds\" target=\"_blank\">Pragmatic Capitalism<\/a>.&#160; If the simple charts below are correct and I have no doubt that it is, then by the numbers \u2013 Who the hell is <strong>going<\/strong> to be buying the Treasury Bonds after June?&#160; Somehow I agree that all this is a Ponzi scheme bigger than Madoff.&#160; It also has <strong>Train Wreck<\/strong> posted all over it.&#160;&#160; To continue to sell those bonds when the biggest <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>buy<\/strong> goes away the <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>return<\/strong> on the investment will surely have to jump way up.&#160; What does that mean?&#160; Maybe much higher <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>interest<\/strong> rates? Maybe a substantial bounce in \u201cvisible\u201d inflation.&#160; The invisible <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>inflation<\/strong> we are facing now with higher commodity (food, fuel, clothing) prices.&#160;&#160;&#160; Maybe \u201cwe have seen the enemy and it is us\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Who will buy <\/strong><strong>Treasuries when the Fed doesn\u2019t?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"two-bits-figure-2\" height=\"277\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/pragcap.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/two-bits-figure-2.jpg?resize=600%2C277\" width=\"600\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n<p>In reading my list of financial blogs this came up from Pragmatic Capitalism.&#160; If the simple charts below are correct and I have no doubt that it is, then by the numbers \u2013 Who the hell is going to be buying the Treasury Bonds after June?&#160; Somehow I agree that all this is a Ponzi scheme bigger than Madoff.&#160; It also has Train Wreck posted all over it.&#160;&#160; To continue to sell those bonds when the biggest buy goes away the return on the investment will surely have to jump way up.&#160; What does that mean?&#160; Maybe much higher interest rates? Maybe a substantial bounce in \u201cvisible\u201d inflation.&#160; The invisible inflation we are facing now with higher commodity (food, fuel, clothing) prices.&#160;&#160;&#160; Maybe \u201cwe <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/03\/02\/are-we-headed-for-a-train-wreck\/\">&#8220;And Now the Rest of the Story &#8211; &#8220;Are we headed for a Train Wreck?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","odd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Are we headed for a Train Wreck? - And That was How it Went<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/03\/02\/are-we-headed-for-a-train-wreck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are we headed for a Train Wreck? - And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In reading my list of financial blogs this came up from Pragmatic Capitalism.&#160; If the simple charts below are correct and I have no doubt that it is, then by the numbers \u2013 Who the hell is going to be buying the Treasury Bonds after June?&#160; Somehow I agree that all this is a Ponzi scheme bigger than Madoff.&#160; It also has Train Wreck posted all over it.&#160;&#160; To continue to sell those bonds when the biggest buy goes away the return on the investment will surely have to jump way up.&#160; What does that mean?&#160; Maybe much higher interest rates? 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Investment mismatch is where money that is earmarked for the short term is invested in a long term strategy and vice versa.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8563,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/11\/09\/ouch-damn-europe-anyway\/","url_meta":{"origin":5192,"position":2},"title":"Ouch! Damn Europe anyway","author":"wd0ajg","date":"November 9, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"This is Why there are No End Zone Celebrations Joshua M Brown November 9th, 2011 Yesterday if you were long, you felt like the king of the world.\u00a0 Today, as you survey your Empire of Dirt, you want to just die. 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Chris Mayer takes a look at what the numbers really mean and how they relate to the inflation-deflation debate.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":365,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/04\/13\/remember-this-reality-statements\/","url_meta":{"origin":5192,"position":4},"title":"Remember this = Reality statements","author":"wd0ajg","date":"April 13, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Investing and finance statements: 4-12-2010 \"With inflation and interest rates low and on the rise as well as dividend yields most likely investors will not see investment returns that they have grown accustomed to over the past 20 years, at least not until valuations revert to or beyond their mean.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Life&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Life","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/category\/life-and-or-living-daily\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":58031,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2015\/07\/18\/july-10th-alaska-cruise\/","url_meta":{"origin":5192,"position":5},"title":"July 10th- Alaska Cruise","author":"wd0ajg","date":"July 18, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"We did get up in time to catch the shuttle down to the train\u2026 got there and we were way early\u2026 although not a lot as people started showing up about 5 minutes after we did.\u00a0 We got checked in, checked the bags to the train and then waited in\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"IMG_3675","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/IMG_3675_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/IMG_3675_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/IMG_3675_thumb.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/IMG_3675_thumb.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5192"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5192\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}