{"id":5053,"date":"2011-02-23T06:57:00","date_gmt":"2011-02-23T12:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=5053"},"modified":"2011-02-23T06:57:00","modified_gmt":"2011-02-23T12:57:00","slug":"from-gregor-us-gotta-agree-we-aint-got-no-spare-capacity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/02\/23\/from-gregor-us-gotta-agree-we-aint-got-no-spare-capacity\/","title":{"rendered":"From Gregor.US\u2026 Gotta agree we ain\u2019t got no spare capacity."},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n
There is not much else that can be said, but from a very low, in the field, perspective \u2013 several of the OPEC countries have had mandates to increase their production capacity and have been spending more money trying to accomplish that.  Yet they continue to produce at the same levels they did over 5 years ago.  Also, read and think about the current news,  about the governments\/leaders that are being removed or fought.  It is obvious that the corruption in those countries is very high and wide spread.  So if they, the corrupt leaders, could squeeze a few more coins now wouldn\u2019t they have done it already?  Think about that in contrast to \u201coh they can just produce more\u201d.  From my simple and \u201cin the field\u201d view, I don\u2019t think that is possible. – WD0AJG<\/h5>\n

Spare Capacity Theory<\/a><\/h4>\n

There are many things that people know about oil markets. This is especially true of those who know little, about oil. They know that oil prices, for example, are controlled by ExxonMobil. Or, at the very least, by nefarious speculators in the futures market<\/strong>. They also know that global oil producers don\u2019t use much of their own oil. And, in particular, they know that OPEC<\/strong> has lots of spare capacity. Oil production<\/strong> capacity that can be turned on tomorrow, for example, should world events disrupt supply. Which brings us to today\u2019s events in Libya<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>I note with interest that David Fyfe of IEA<\/strong> Paris earlier today attempted to calm world oil markets<\/a>, by reminding that in the OECD there are over 1.6 billion barrels of oil in inventory. By marshaling these western supplies of already-pumped, above-ground oil, the world could gain a new source of oil for up to one year, at a rate of 4 mbpd (million barrels per day). There are a few sticky issues surrounding such a claim. Not least of which is that oil markets regard drawdowns of above-ground inventories as a reason to send prices even higher. But that point aside, let\u2019s consider what Fyfe did not claim: the head of IEA\u2019s oil markets division did not claim that Non-OPEC<\/strong> oil producers, which account for nearly 60% of world oil supply, could lift supply to make up for the Libyan disruption. That\u2019s no surprise. Non-OPEC<\/strong> oil production<\/strong> has already peaked, and couldn\u2019t increase supply either tomorrow or next year.<\/p>\n

In the graphic to the left we see the latest publicly available charts for OECD inventories, from the 18 January Oil Market Report<\/a> from IEA<\/strong>. Note that in the bottom chart what\u2019s being accounted for is not only the 1.6 billion barrels of crude that Fyfe refers to, but another 1 billion barrels of oil products. That said, the scale of these large numbers can be a tad misleading. They represent in part just the normal flows of the global oil market<\/strong> and are a snapshot of oil as it flows from production, to refining, and to distribution. For a different measure, these same levels of inventory represent 57.5 days of supply. Which the IEA<\/strong> itself says arethe lowest in the past two years<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In truth, the spare capacity that the world cares about\u2014that the oil futures market<\/strong> cares about\u2014is not the inventory level. But rather, actual production<\/strong> capacity that can be brought on immediately. You can see the problem, from a price<\/strong> standpoint. If the world loses Libya\u2019s 1.5 mbpd production<\/strong> for 90-120 days, and starts drawing down above-ground inventories, this only makes the inventory cushion that much thinner for any new supply disruptions. The question on the mind of the oil market<\/strong> therefore is not Mr. Fyfe\u2019s 1.6 billion barrels of crude, but whether countries like Kuwait, the U.A.E. and especially Saudi<\/strong> Arabia or even Russia can lift supply. Immediately.<\/p>\n

Of course, \u201ceveryone knows\u201d that OPEC<\/strong> is sitting on lots of oil. However, as has been discussed here, at The Oil Drum<\/a>, and elsewhere it remains decidedly unclear whether Saudi<\/strong> Arabia can indeed turn on extra taps at will. But the problems for world supply of oil do not merely end with production<\/strong> capacity. Even if OPEC<\/strong> is indeed sitting on 1-3 mbpd of spare capacity, it\u2019s not clear for how long they can both increase production, and export that production<\/em> to the world. Not only has Saudi<\/strong> Arabia\u2019s production<\/strong> not increased in the past five years, but, Saudi<\/strong> is increasingly using its own oil for its own population. The result? Flat, to declining exports of oil from Saudi Arabia<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Spare Capacity Theory, therefore, looks alot like an unproven consensus reality. I\u2019d like to define it as follows:<\/p>\n

\n

Spare Capacity Theory<\/strong>: the assumption among western bankers, policy makers, economists, and stock markets that OPEC producers can lift oil production at will, and, export all of that spare production to world consumers<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

We shall see how much the oil markets themselves believe in this theory. Today\u2019s five dollar upward price advance<\/a>\u2014from already high price<\/strong> levels\u2014suggests the market<\/strong> is justifiably concerned about events in Libya, and the risk of more unrest to come in oil producing regions. Given the potential magnitude of this situation, I actually think its good that we can still rely on price<\/strong> as a means to ration supply.<\/p>\n

-Gregor<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

There is not much else that can be said, but from a very low, in the field, perspective \u2013 several of the OPEC countries have had mandates to increase their production capacity and have been spending more money trying to accomplish that.  Yet they continue to produce at the same levels they did over 5 years ago.  Also, read and think about the current news,  about the governments\/leaders that are being removed or fought.  It is obvious that the corruption in those countries is very high and wide spread.  So if they, the corrupt leaders, could squeeze a few more coins now wouldn\u2019t they have done it already?  Think about that in contrast to \u201coh they can just produce more\u201d.  From my simple and <\/p>\n

“And Now the Rest of the Story – “From Gregor.US\u2026 Gotta agree we ain\u2019t got no spare capacity.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","odd"],"yoast_head":"\nFrom Gregor.US\u2026 Gotta agree we ain\u2019t got no spare capacity. - 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How numbers are deceiving","author":"wd0ajg","date":"February 4, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Punk US Oil Demand and Export Confusion from Gregor.us by Gregor Macdonald The US is using spare refining capacity to export millions of barrels of oil products, while US domestic demand remains weak. One of the more common misunderstandings I see in energy circles right now is the idea that\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/US-Annual-Petroleum-Consumption-in-BTU-1995-2010.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/US-Annual-Petroleum-Consumption-in-BTU-1995-2010.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/US-Annual-Petroleum-Consumption-in-BTU-1995-2010.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5222,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/03\/07\/stupid-people-say-stupid-things\/","url_meta":{"origin":5053,"position":1},"title":"Stupid People say Stupid Things!","author":"wd0ajg","date":"March 7, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"It is constantly amazing to me that \u201ceducated\u201d people can be so stupid.\u00a0 On a recent news items they were interviewing people about why the price of oil is so high.\u00a0 A common statement is \u201cThose big oil companies are doing it on purpose\u201d.\u00a0 Damn that has been around for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBS\"","block_context":{"text":"BBS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/bbs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":533,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/05\/25\/this-one-is-great-as-well\/","url_meta":{"origin":5053,"position":2},"title":"This one is great as well….","author":"wd0ajg","date":"May 25, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"How is it that we pick the brightest and best leaders to send to Washington and then put up with how bad they continually make it for the rest of us? Edward Abbey said: \"One man alone can be pretty dumb sometimes, but for real bona fide stupidity, there ain't\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"APRS\"","block_context":{"text":"APRS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/aprs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":58530,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2015\/08\/21\/interesting-info-about-oil\/","url_meta":{"origin":5053,"position":3},"title":"Interesting info about oil","author":"wd0ajg","date":"August 21, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"This was an interesting info graphic article\u2026 if you want to know about oil and you whine about those big bad oil companies, you really need to whine about those \u201cCOUNTRIES\u201d that own their own oil companies\u2026 the 10 largest oil companies are State Run\u2026 State owned \u2026 and used\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61211,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2017\/12\/13\/neighbors-with-skinny-legs\/","url_meta":{"origin":5053,"position":4},"title":"Neighbors with skinny legs","author":"wd0ajg","date":"December 13, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"While out in the yard this evening I noticed some of the neighbors out for a walk.\u00a0 Up here that is not unusual on nice days and even when I think it is\u00a0 too damn cold out, they are out walking.\u00a0 We picked a bad spot to be on a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBS\"","block_context":{"text":"BBS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/bbs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"1-20171213_155245_001-001","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/1-20171213_155245_001-001_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/1-20171213_155245_001-001_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/1-20171213_155245_001-001_thumb.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/1-20171213_155245_001-001_thumb.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":57887,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2015\/06\/25\/ouch-and-wow\/","url_meta":{"origin":5053,"position":5},"title":"Ouch! and WoW!\u2026","author":"wd0ajg","date":"June 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Today was my plan to get some maintenance done on Sherries car.\u00a0 The damn idiot warning light for oil change came on last weekend so\u00a0 it was time to get the oil changed\u2026 along with that I had figured to replace a couple of the tires as 6 months ago\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"SAM_3461","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/SAM_3461_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/SAM_3461_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/SAM_3461_thumb.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5053\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}