Consumer Metrics Institute<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\nReflecting back on 2010, we can offer a number of observations directly from our data:<\/p>\n
\u2013 GDP growth rates can be significantly impacted by non-consumer line items<\/strong>. Manufacturers building inventory, export growth, increased governmental spending and (counter-intuitively) consumer cut-backs on imported goods have all increased the GDP<\/strong> during portions of 2010 even as \u201creal final\u201d consumer commerce remained relatively flat.<\/p>\n\u2013 This recession was not a shared experience<\/strong>. Some consumers were especially hard hit by the downturn, just as they may have been the very same demographics that benefited the most from the expansion that led up to the 2007 peak. Unfortunately, the consumers who provide the transactions that we capture appear to be disproportionately among those most severely impacted by this recession.<\/p>\n\u2013 At year-end 2010 consumers were still cautious about the long term<\/strong>. In effect, the massive stimulus applied by the government during 2010 still didn\u2019t significantly improve longer term<\/strong> consumer confidence. Households are still deleveraging, albeit at a moderated pace. Consumers are still reacting to their own personal (and highly localized) assessments of the employment and housing markets, and they currently see no reason to significantly change<\/strong> their new-found conservative behaviors.<\/p>\n\u2013 Recession-fatigued consumers can self-medicate with holiday spending while still adhering to long term outlooks<\/strong>. December consumer confidence surveys clearly indicate that consumers are not yet convinced that the \u201crecovery\u201d is real or sustainable. A corollary to that observation is that retail sales surveys can be a misleading indication of the quality of commerce.<\/p>\nWe can also offer some other general economic observations more broadly hinted at in our data:<\/p>\n
\u2013 Infrastructure spending by governments is poor way to stimulate the economy<\/strong>. Repaving roads is a great way to spend vast sums of money on asphalt and concrete. It is a less efficient way to create quality long term<\/strong> jobs, revitalize the housing market<\/strong> or (evidently) help the consumers we track.<\/p>\n\u2013 Corporate earnings can be a misleading indication of the health of national commerce<\/strong>. Major U.S. corporations are in a privileged position in the economic food chain, with access to overseas markets, commercial paper, cheap loans, ruthless human resources departments, governmental contracts and stimulus monies. The people<\/strong> actually creating new jobs<\/strong> don\u2019t have such access. This is the business corollary to the \u201cnot a shared experience\u201d mentioned above \u2014 and it directly impacts the vast majority of the on-line<\/strong> merchants that provide the flip side of the consumer transactions we track.<\/p>\n\u2013 In time the unemployed simply disappear<\/strong>. They transform into students, the underemployed, the \u201cdiscouraged,\u201d the prematurely retired or the chronically starving self-employed. Compared to the 1930?s however, a surviving second household income has often mitigated the human suffering \u2014 even as upside-down mortgages have prevented the mobility necessary to pursue elusive jobs<\/strong>. Many of the households caught in those binds are part of the \u201ctech-savvy\u201d cohort of on-line<\/strong> shoppers that we have tracked since 2004.<\/p>\n\u2013 Rescuing banks does not stimulate the economy<\/strong>. Saving banks<\/strong> may be necessary to prevent economic Armageddon, but it is not sufficient (in and of itself) to ensure a self-sustaining recovery. When provided with enough taxpayer cash to be both liquid and solvent, banks<\/strong> will promptly act in their own self<\/strong> interest. And changing regulatory benchmarks and\/or accounting rules only facilitates that behavior. Our data includes the impact of the housing sector on the economy, and rescuing the banks<\/strong> has clearly not revitalized that industry.<\/p>\n\u2013 Ben Bernanke can\u2019t force people to borrow money that they don\u2019t want<\/strong>. And as mentioned above, he also apparently can\u2019t force banks<\/strong> to lend money they would rather use for other purposes, especially if all the highly qualified borrowers don\u2019t need any more debt. Over the past three years the Fed has discovered the limits to what \u201cpolicy\u201d can do, and the quality shift in the transactions we track indicates that our consumers still have no interest in leveraging back up.<\/p>\n\u2013 By \u201cfeeling the economic pain\u201d among their constituents, politicians have promised results they don\u2019t have the means to deliver<\/strong>. Blame this political empowerment on Keynes, although it has certainly created a nice gig for Alan Greenspan and his successors. The problem is that now the \u201cpolicy\u201d cupboard has gone bare. Fortunately, Lincoln was right: you can\u2019t fool all of the people<\/strong> all of the time. Deep down the public knows that politicians can\u2019t really fix things \u2014 especially if gridlock is setting in. Unlike 2008, this year our data never did see a substantial uptick after the electoral \u201cFUD\u201d (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) was resolved. Our consumers seem to know that \u2014 self<\/strong> medicated holiday cheer aside \u2014 the macro picture isn\u2019t going to change<\/strong> anytime soon.<\/p>\nWe are in the business of collecting data about on-line<\/strong> consumer transactions for discretionary durable goods. We\u2019re not going to change<\/strong> what we do (as some have suggested) when the GDP<\/strong> stops tracking our on-line<\/strong> consumers or when the housing market<\/strong> becomes irrelevant within the latest quarter of economic data. Our job will remain the publication of what we collect, however contrary that data may be. And right now that data is materially weaker that many people<\/strong> would like to believe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Found these gems in my reading list. If our foresight was just half as good as our hindsight we could all be rich! – WD0AJG<\/p>\n
From the <\/p>\n
REFLECTING BACK ON 2010 <\/p>\n
by Consumer Metrics Institute<\/p>\n
By Consumer Metrics Institute<\/p>\n
Reflecting back on 2010, we can offer a number of observations directly from our data:<\/p>\n
\u2013 GDP growth rates can be significantly impacted by non-consumer line items. Manufacturers building inventory, export growth, increased governmental spending and (counter-intuitively) consumer cut-backs on imported goods have all increased the GDP during portions of 2010 even as \u201creal final\u201d consumer commerce remained relatively flat.<\/p>\n
\u2013 This recession was not a shared experience. Some consumers were especially hard hit by the downturn, just as they may have been <\/p>\n
“And Now the Rest of the Story – “Buried in the investing reading list<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[13],"class_list":["post-4521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-bbs","odd"],"yoast_head":"\nBuried in the investing reading list - And That was How it Went<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/01\/14\/buried-in-the-investing-reading-list\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Buried in the investing reading list - And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Found these gems in my reading list. If our foresight was just half as good as our hindsight we could all be rich! – WD0AJG From the REFLECTING BACK ON 2010 by Consumer Metrics Institute By Consumer Metrics Institute Reflecting back on 2010, we can offer a number of observations directly from our data: \u2013 GDP growth rates can be significantly impacted by non-consumer line items. Manufacturers building inventory, export growth, increased governmental spending and (counter-intuitively) consumer cut-backs on imported goods have all increased the GDP during portions of 2010 even as \u201creal final\u201d consumer commerce remained relatively flat. \u2013 This recession was not a shared experience. 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All companies have at least $10 billion market cap and over 4% dividend yield, and are among the top two in their sectors in terms of dividend yields. The market data is sourced from Finviz.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1711,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/08\/25\/the-power-of-niche-sales\/","url_meta":{"origin":4521,"position":1},"title":"The Power of Niche Sales","author":"wd0ajg","date":"August 25, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Many successful organizations have survived turbulent economic conditions and fierce competitive environments by consistently nurturing a niche, and the loyal consumers in the niche community. It is possible to expand and grow business in addition to the niche. Unfortunately, several other organizations have lost their identities in an effort to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Hobbies"","block_context":{"text":"Hobbies","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/category\/hobbies\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14906,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2013\/10\/08\/10-dividend-stocks-for-the-ultimate-in-deferred-gratification\/","url_meta":{"origin":4521,"position":2},"title":"10 Dividend Stocks For The Ultimate In Deferred Gratification","author":"wd0ajg","date":"October 8, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Ok, I have some of these but maybe I need a few more for my \"gratification\" accounts... \u00a0comments in\u00a0Italics... via Dividend Growth Stocks Dividend Growth Stocks For The Long-Term Below are several dividend growth stocks that provide a good mix of yield and growth that result in an 8-10%Yield on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Abundance Economics\"","block_context":{"text":"Abundance Economics","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/abundance-economics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4335,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/01\/09\/re-post-from-gregor-us-oil-vs-economic-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":4521,"position":3},"title":"Re-Post from Gregor.us \u2013 Oil vs economic recovery","author":"wd0ajg","date":"January 9, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"This is something else that I had not connected the Dots on.\u00a0 The more I read the more I learn, but this makes sense to me.\u00a0 As the price of energy goes up the possibility of economic growth will stabilize and maybe go back down.\u00a0 It also has coorelation to\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"United-States-Employed-Persons-in-Millions-2000-2010-revised-7-JAN-2010","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/UnitedStatesEmployedPersonsinMillions20002010revised7JAN2010_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/UnitedStatesEmployedPersonsinMillions20002010revised7JAN2010_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/UnitedStatesEmployedPersonsinMillions20002010revised7JAN2010_thumb.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":2605,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/10\/10\/the-various-categories-of-coaxial-cable\/","url_meta":{"origin":4521,"position":4},"title":"The Various Categories Of Coaxial Cable","author":"wd0ajg","date":"October 10, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"An Introduction to Cat 5 Cabling.","rel":"","context":"In "Hobbies"","block_context":{"text":"Hobbies","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/category\/hobbies\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2674,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/11\/06\/how-to-write-articles-on-communication-technologies-for-the-public\/","url_meta":{"origin":4521,"position":5},"title":"How to Write Articles on Communication Technologies For the Public","author":"wd0ajg","date":"November 6, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"It's amazing all the devices we have for communication these days. After all, it's almost as if we can't go anywhere without having a communication device with us at all times. I've heard friends say that they feel naked without their cell phone, or rather their smart phone.","rel":"","context":"In "Hobbies"","block_context":{"text":"Hobbies","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/category\/hobbies\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4521"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4521\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}