{"id":4210,"date":"2011-01-01T11:57:38","date_gmt":"2011-01-01T17:57:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=4210"},"modified":"2011-01-01T11:57:38","modified_gmt":"2011-01-01T17:57:38","slug":"energy-oil-production-and-the-outlook-or-lookout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/01\/01\/energy-oil-production-and-the-outlook-or-lookout\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy , oil production and the outlook? or LOOKOUT!"},"content":{"rendered":"

From Gregor.us<\/a><\/p>\n

Happy New Year from The North Sea. Or, Secrecy By Complexity<\/h2>\n

The dramatic fall of Mexican oil production, and its largest field Cantarell, is often cited as a signature example of the problems facing Non-OPEC<\/strong> supply. Since the production highs of 2004-2005, Mexican production has lost over 800 kbpd (thousand barrels per day) which is fairly dramatic for a country that was producing around 3.4 mbpd as recently as 5-6 years ago. But as accelerated as these declines have been in Mexico, another oil producing region has seen even quicker declines. The North Sea, which comprises \u201cUnited Kingdom Offshore, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands Offshore, and Germany Offshore\u201d has just lost 25% of its production in less than 24 months, falling over a million barrels a day. | see:\u00a0North Sea Crude Oil Production in mbpd 2008-2010<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I mention this because as 2010 comes to a close, it appears that for the fifth year in a row<\/a> the peak production year<\/strong> of 2005\u2013in which the world produced oil at a rate of\u00a073.718<\/strong> mbpd\u2013will once again not be exceeded. This is truly an astonishing result given that the new pricing era for oil began in 2004. For over five years national oil companies and publicly traded oil companies have been free to sell oil into and ever-rising price environment. What\u2019s more intriguing is that OPEC\u2013which currently accounts for about 42% of global supply\u2013 has been roughly steady in producing 30-31 mbpd while Non-OPEC, accounting for the majority of world supply at 58% has struggled with decline.<\/p>\n

Another region in Non-OPEC<\/strong> that has disappointed is Canada<\/strong>. While Canadian oil production soared coming into the last decade, its production halted starting in 2006 and since then has oscillated around 2.6 mbpd. There is much hope for future increases from Canada<\/strong> and there is even a kind of mini-myth taking place in the US right now that Canada<\/strong> will be a strong source of future supply to the US. However, what has happened in Canada<\/strong> the past<\/strong> decade is that cheap conventional barrels of oil have been replaced with expensive tar sands barrels of oil. The result? Running in place in terms of supply, but at a much higher cost structure.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

One of the methods EIA<\/strong> Washington and\u00a0IEA Paris<\/a> have increasingly relied on in recent years to obscure the very serious and now very real problem of oil depletion is to include biofuels and natural gas<\/strong> liquids in the accounting of global oil production. The technique that both agencies use to conduct this obfuscation is a familiar one, in which the key information is aggregated (buried) into a much larger barrage of data and presentations. For a scholarly look<\/strong> at the methods governments use to work around their obligations to to inform the public, do watch\u00a0the one hour lecture<\/a> that Jay Rosen gave to the World Bank earlier this year<\/strong>. Rosen\u2019s deconstructions of the media have been very helpful to me, over the past<\/strong> two years. See his blog here:\u00a0PressThink.org<\/a>. Rosen describes the use of opacity as a kind of hiding in plain sight, orsecrecy by complexity<\/em>.<\/p>\n

In order to rebut this Secrecy by Complexity it\u2019s the obligation of responsible energy analysts to explain the falsehood of adding biofuels and natural gas<\/strong> liquids to measures of oil production. The reason is simple: natural gas<\/strong> liquids are not oil, and they contain only 65% of the BTU of oil. Worse, biofuels are barely an energy source themselves and are the product<\/strong> of a conversion process of other energy inputs. Accordingly, the world is not producing 84, or 85, or 86 million barrels of oil nor will the depletion of oil be solved by the production of biofuels in the future.<\/p>\n

When the EIA<\/strong> in Washington falsely composes such forecasts, aggregating future natural gas<\/strong> liquids and ethanol into a supply picture for \u201coil\u201d as they do each year<\/strong> in\u00a0The Annual Energy Outlook<\/a>, this disables the public\u2019s ability to accurately understand the true outlook for global oil supply. It\u2019s not surprising that the government uses opacity and\u00a0secrecy by complexity<\/em> to handle this extremely important issue. The loss of cheap energy, the loss of the cheap BTU that oil has provided to OECD nations for the past<\/strong> 70 years, is a crucial factor in the dilemma the West now faces: a newly chronic economic restraint that refuses to go away.<\/p>\n

-Gregor<\/em><\/p>\n

Further Reading on EIA Secrecy by Complexity: <\/em>The Ascent of Middle East Food and Energy Demand<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Gregor.us<\/p>\n

Happy New Year from The North Sea. Or, Secrecy By Complexity <\/p>\n

The dramatic fall of Mexican oil production, and its largest field Cantarell, is often cited as a signature example of the problems facing Non-OPEC supply. Since the production highs of 2004-2005, Mexican production has lost over 800 kbpd (thousand barrels per day) which is fairly dramatic for a country that was producing around 3.4 mbpd as recently as 5-6 years ago. But as accelerated as these declines have been in Mexico, another oil producing region has seen even quicker declines. The North Sea, which comprises \u201cUnited Kingdom Offshore, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands Offshore, and Germany Offshore\u201d has just lost 25% of its production in less than 24 months, falling over a million barrels <\/p>\n

“And Now the Rest of the Story – “Energy , oil production and the outlook? or LOOKOUT!<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","odd"],"yoast_head":"\nEnergy , oil production and the outlook? or LOOKOUT! - And That was How it Went<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/01\/01\/energy-oil-production-and-the-outlook-or-lookout\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Energy , oil production and the outlook? or LOOKOUT! - And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Gregor.us Happy New Year from The North Sea. Or, Secrecy By Complexity The dramatic fall of Mexican oil production, and its largest field Cantarell, is often cited as a signature example of the problems facing Non-OPEC supply. Since the production highs of 2004-2005, Mexican production has lost over 800 kbpd (thousand barrels per day) which is fairly dramatic for a country that was producing around 3.4 mbpd as recently as 5-6 years ago. But as accelerated as these declines have been in Mexico, another oil producing region has seen even quicker declines. 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There are not many open receptors for differing thoughts. Cases in point - Global Warming, Peak Oil, Republican vs. Democrat.... and on. My title could also read \"figures never lie but liars\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Life"","block_context":{"text":"Life","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/category\/life-and-or-living-daily\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15502,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/02\/27\/tweet-from-tweetcaster\/","url_meta":{"origin":4210,"position":2},"title":"Tweet from TweetCaster","author":"wd0ajg","date":"February 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"@themotleyfool: It's great that the U.S. is producing more oil, but don't assume that means we're the next Saudi Arabia. http:\/\/t.co\/2fL8243d6T Shared via TweetCaster As a followup to that re-tweet... I had another article that came in and all those people that are looking for Oil to taper back off\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBS\"","block_context":{"text":"BBS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/bbs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"production1","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/production1.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/production1.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/production1.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/production1.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12163,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\/","url_meta":{"origin":4210,"position":3},"title":"The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel","author":"wd0ajg","date":"May 25, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Long but good read about oil production and price. Who really has the power of pricing? There\u2019s been a lot of excitement in the past year over the rise of North American oil production and the promise of increased oil production across the whole of the Americas in the years\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production 2005-2012","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18972,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2015\/01\/28\/its-good-to-be-retired-so-far\/","url_meta":{"origin":4210,"position":4},"title":"It\u2019s good to be retired\u2026 so far","author":"wd0ajg","date":"January 28, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I am so glad I am no longer involved in these happenings\u2026 : \u201cLast Tuesday, Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, which is being acquired by Halliburton for almost $35 billion in a masterful piece of Wall Street engineering, chimed in with its own job cuts; its customers in the oil\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4995,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/02\/20\/oil-stocks-are-high-but-is-there-more\/","url_meta":{"origin":4210,"position":5},"title":"Oil stocks are high but is there more?","author":"wd0ajg","date":"February 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Took this from the BESPOKE site.\u00a0 I am wondering the same thoughts, are the oil stocks ahead of the oil price or is this a trend that can continue?\u00a0\u00a0 I question on this as I work in this industry and have a lot of investments in it.\u00a0\u00a0 I think that\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4210\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}