{"id":344,"date":"2010-04-03T06:20:13","date_gmt":"2010-04-03T06:20:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=344"},"modified":"2018-11-11T20:23:47","modified_gmt":"2018-11-11T20:23:47","slug":"you-see-what-you-want-to","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/04\/03\/you-see-what-you-want-to\/","title":{"rendered":"You see what you want to…."},"content":{"rendered":"

In today\u2019s world of arguments and discussion – each side can only see what they want to see. There are not many open receptors for differing thoughts. Cases in point – Global Warming, Peak<\/strong> Oil, Republican vs. Democrat…. and on. My title could also read “figures never lie but liars always figure”. The use of large numbers can also challenge our ability to decipher some realities.<\/p>\n

A recent article I have read was linking quotes about peak oil – the theory is that we have reached the peak in production<\/strong> or near that level<\/strong>. Stating in another way – the current producible reserves can not sustain this production<\/strong> level, and new reserves are not coming on line fast enough to counteract the decline – therefore what we have is what it will be for???? Time without significant effort and investment. The first poster put in links that pushed the idea we had reached Peak<\/strong> Oil production<\/strong> and more reviews and experts were agreeing… <\/p>\n

Later in the post another poster used a link to refute the first poster but in my assessment (granted I am a bit biased) I see problems in the argument… all related to my title and the fact that figures can be used to miss-lead if you do not put them in context… let me review:<\/p>\n

In the refute – Oxy has found new reserves of “LIKELY” 1 billion barrels in an old field<\/strong> – I say great but wait…
\nIt further states that “within 2 years” (pretty long time) it could be producing 100,000 barrels (sounds big)… but wait – no mention of current production<\/strong> and what the increase actually is but if we assume it is all new production, and we assume that the US uses 25million barrels per day, and we import 70% of that… all numbers that are published by reputable sources, we see that this new huge field<\/strong> will produce about 0.4% or our needs (in two years). Some how I think this 100,000 is the total output of some field<\/strong> that maybe today is producing 50 to 70,000 now?
\nAn elsewhere statement listed a field<\/strong> in West Texas that was bought for 3.5 billion. Economics would be that it should pay<\/strong> out in????? 15 years???? To be a profit… ok that is it needs to pay<\/strong> out 233 million per year. ok, the statement goes further to say by using tertiary recover techniques (stuff we have known for 20 years as I worked on some back in 84) that they increased the production<\/strong> of that field<\/strong> from 130,000 to 200,000 = 70,000 bpd increase. NO<\/strong> mention of the cost<\/strong> of this injection and the costs of increased maintenance associated with pumping a low level<\/strong> acid into the zones, etc… But just from the increase they are getting one day<\/strong> of US needs in the increased production<\/strong>. Assuming a good business model of getting 30% return on the production<\/strong> they are making 1.575 million per day<\/strong> or twice what they need to pay<\/strong> out in 15 years… actually this investment could pay<\/strong> out in 7 years but over that time<\/strong> they will have the same decline curve in production<\/strong> that they had before the treatment started… unknown but might be 1\/2 the production<\/strong> increase at the end of 7… <\/p>\n

The quotes form OXY is they have enough projects to increase production<\/strong> by 5%… oh boy but wait that is not near enough to offset the production<\/strong> decline elsewhere vs. the daily use that will not decline. Daily use will remain at current levels unless we have significant economic and supply disruptions (regional war, disasters, etc.) or changes in lifestyles – not likely. <\/p>\n

Strange how some see these huge field<\/strong> finds, or change<\/strong> in reserve calculations as statements that we have somehow cured the fact that all easy resources (not just oil but we need to include potable water, timber, food, etc. )Are being used up and to maintain our current usage standard the cost<\/strong> of that resource will naturally have to increase. Along with that, as the cost<\/strong> goes up the use patterns will change, new methods or materials or ways will develop to offset some of this and we all go on, arguing the depletion vs. supply. In reality it is not just supply vs. demand it must also be measured on supply vs. demand vs. cost+change<\/strong>. <\/p>\n

I do not know if we have reached “peak oil” but I do know you can use numbers to make it sound better or worse than it is. I do consider from my limited knowledge (30years in the patch) and my limited ability to read numbers, that if the last two years of economic slowdown (globally) did not make a big dent in the oil use number and the production<\/strong> did not (in real measure) go way up or way down, and there is no known huge increase in storage, and the price did not go belly-up and see that predicted $30 per bbl again then we may be seriously reaching a tight spot. Looking at the past few years of production, there was only a listed 1 to 2% difference in potential production<\/strong> vs. use? That is too damn close to not see the price has set a new base for energy costs and the future. JMHO <\/p>\n

To that end it may be a real good time<\/strong> to look at quality natural resource assets to invest in? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In today\u2019s world of arguments and discussion – each side can only see what they want to see. There are not many open receptors for differing thoughts. Cases in point – Global Warming, Peak Oil, Republican vs. Democrat…. and on. My title could also read “figures never lie but liars always figure”. The use of large numbers can also challenge our ability to decipher some realities.<\/p>\n

A recent article I have read was linking quotes about peak oil – the theory is that we have reached the peak in production or near that level. Stating in another way – the current producible reserves can not sustain this production level, and new reserves are not coming on line fast enough to counteract the decline – therefore <\/p>\n

“And Now the Rest of the Story – “You see what you want to….<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-life-and-or-living-daily","odd"],"yoast_head":"\nYou see what you want to.... - And That was How it Went<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/04\/03\/you-see-what-you-want-to\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"You see what you want to.... - And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In today\u2019s world of arguments and discussion – each side can only see what they want to see. There are not many open receptors for differing thoughts. Cases in point – Global Warming, Peak Oil, Republican vs. Democrat…. and on. My title could also read “figures never lie but liars always figure”. The use of large numbers can also challenge our ability to decipher some realities. A recent article I have read was linking quotes about peak oil – the theory is that we have reached the peak in production or near that level. 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Maybe?","author":"wd0ajg","date":"April 30, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Picked this up from ZeroHedge blog. The comments on this run from OK to way out there. \u00a0I do not agree on the peak oil chart that production will drop as fast as the chart indicates... I feel it may be more of a stable production level for several years\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4335,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/01\/09\/re-post-from-gregor-us-oil-vs-economic-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":344,"position":2},"title":"Re-Post from Gregor.us \u2013 Oil vs economic recovery","author":"wd0ajg","date":"January 9, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"This is something else that I had not connected the Dots on.\u00a0 The more I read the more I learn, but this makes sense to me.\u00a0 As the price of energy goes up the possibility of economic growth will stabilize and maybe go back down.\u00a0 It also has coorelation to\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"United-States-Employed-Persons-in-Millions-2000-2010-revised-7-JAN-2010","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/UnitedStatesEmployedPersonsinMillions20002010revised7JAN2010_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/UnitedStatesEmployedPersonsinMillions20002010revised7JAN2010_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/UnitedStatesEmployedPersonsinMillions20002010revised7JAN2010_thumb.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5222,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/03\/07\/stupid-people-say-stupid-things\/","url_meta":{"origin":344,"position":3},"title":"Stupid People say Stupid Things!","author":"wd0ajg","date":"March 7, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"It is constantly amazing to me that \u201ceducated\u201d people can be so stupid.\u00a0 On a recent news items they were interviewing people about why the price of oil is so high.\u00a0 A common statement is \u201cThose big oil companies are doing it on purpose\u201d.\u00a0 Damn that has been around for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBS\"","block_context":{"text":"BBS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/bbs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6736,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/06\/23\/oil-release-from-the-reserves-for-what-purpose\/","url_meta":{"origin":344,"position":4},"title":"Oil release from the reserves – for what purpose?","author":"wd0ajg","date":"June 23, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The reserves are there for the purpose of \u00a0\"EMERGENCY\". \u00a0Hell the price is trending down now before the release. I think they(the Governments) need to be investigated for manipulating the market more than the traders... how about you? \u00a0I know the price is high but it is there for several\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15013,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2013\/11\/04\/3-plays-in-the-sexiest-sector-of-the-oil-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":344,"position":5},"title":"3 Plays in the Sexiest Sector of the Oil Boom","author":"wd0ajg","date":"November 4, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"There's a growing buzz across the oil industry... As oil production becomes more complex, customers are spending more and more on advance equipment and services. To better explain the specifics of this dynamic, Byron King examines a theory that most people have put to bed: Peak Oil. 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