{"id":2589,"date":"2010-09-26T17:01:00","date_gmt":"2010-09-26T23:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=2589"},"modified":"2010-09-26T17:01:00","modified_gmt":"2010-09-26T23:01:00","slug":"commodity-prices-momentum-shopping-for-investments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/09\/26\/commodity-prices-momentum-shopping-for-investments\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodity prices – momentum shopping for investments?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Since I have a little interest in farming I do read these a little more closely than some items and I actually have been thinking as far back as last summer that I should have been getting into things like $POT and $MOS.  If you don’t do actual commodities then look for fertilizer stocks.   I can’t say which is best or which to look for but surely there is something to tickle your interest here.  How long will it last?  Can’t say.  Do I recommend anything? NO – just food for thought – WD0AJG<\/span><\/h2>\n

<\/h2>\n

Grains Over Gold. Yeah, I Said It.<\/h2>\n

<\/a><\/h2>\n
from The Reformed Broker<\/a><\/span> by Joshua M Brown<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

“Investors are failing to recognize that both agricultural prices, such as wheat, and industrial soft prices, such as cotton and rubber, are moving in tandem.”
\n– Sean Darby, Nomura strategist<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Farmer Brown<\/strong><\/a> here again.  For investment purposes, Gold has been the undisputed commodity winner over the last<\/strong> ten years.  GLD<\/strong>, the most popular gold ETF, is now sitting on assets under management of $53 billion, a number second only to the assets in the SPY<\/strong> (S&P 500 ETF).  What are the odds of a repeat performance for gold prices and popularity over the next ten years?<\/p>\n

 chart of the food<\/strong> price<\/strong> index (based on IMF data) going<\/strong> back 10 years.  It includes orange juice, cereal, vegetable oils, meat, sugar, seafood, bananas, etc:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I have absolutely no problem whatsoever hammering this ag story home, week after week, because it’s just so obvious.  I don’t give tips or investment advice on the interwebs, but I do discuss themes that are worth paying attention to<\/a>, and the global agriculture demand story is screaming right now.<\/p>\n

But a lot of us aren’t listening.<\/p>\n

I’ve covered the topic of how hungry the developing world is becoming for more poultry, beef and pork.  I’ve called the ag story perhaps the “most monumental investing opportunity of our lifetime” (see here: The Beans or the Business?<\/em><\/a>).<\/p>\n

The important thing to remember here is that the animals the developing world now wants to consume in ever larger quantities need to consume food<\/strong> themselves.  They eat corn, cereals, wheat and other feed grains and they eat quite a lot.  The more animals there are being raised for human consumption, the more demand there is for feed crops, fertilizers, farming equipment, seeds and arable land.<\/p>\n

And now we’re seeing the agricultural raw cost commodities<\/strong> like wool, hides, rubber, timber and cotton begin to break out to new ten year highs, see the below monthly chart going<\/strong> back to 2000:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Agricultural raw materials and food<\/strong> prices running together?  You think maybe this might become important?<\/p>\n

MarketWatch<\/strong> picked up on a recent report from investment bank Nomura<\/strong> in which the assertion is made that the big commodity gains of the next decade will come from the soft commodities, not the metals.  I’m in the same camp and have been planning accordingly for a short time now.  The recent ramp in the farm-y futures market has added some urgency to my work in this area.<\/p>\n

\n

“While investor eyes are focused on the gold price<\/strong> as it touches new highs, the acceleration in global food<\/strong> price<\/strong> is unrestrained.  We continue to believe that soft commodities<\/strong> will outperform base and precious metals in the future.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

That’s your money quote right there.  When we talk about the ag price<\/strong> spike, we’re not just fixating on aberrations like the Russian wheat field<\/strong> fires.  What we’re saying is that the wheat field<\/strong> fires and subsequent Russian export ban on crops were your wake-up call.  People are hungry around the world and the global population is Movin’ On Up like George and Weezie.  The supply chain is getting tighter and over time, prices are pretty much heading in one direction – the pace of this march accelerating with the undeniable improvement of living standards taking hold throughout Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.<\/p>\n

My core belief is that excess speculation from the hedge fund feedback loop in the soft commodities<\/strong> markets combined with a rapid increase in catastrophic weather incidents will mean continued price<\/strong> spikes and dislocations.  Combine these two ideas and look<\/strong> at them against a backdrop of the developing world making a big leap forward economically and you have the recipe for a longer-term bull trend.  This bull market, however, will not be about pushing paper or flipping digits on a computer screen; this one will feature the verisimilitude of actual hunger and human progress on a global scale.<\/p>\n

The food<\/strong> riots of 2008 were just the shot over the bow, in my estimation.  The recent bullish action in ag commodities<\/strong> may be the start of the actual melee.<\/p>\n

Sources:<\/p>\n

Food Price Inflation Buoys Asian Producers Outlook (MarketWatch)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Read Also:<\/p>\n

Ag Plays: The Beans or the Business (TRB)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Pondering the Big Market Call of the Next Decade (TRB)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Tags: $<\/span>GLD<\/a>, $<\/span>SPY<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

Since I have a little interest in farming I do read these a little more closely than some items and I actually have been thinking as far back as last summer that I should have been getting into things like $POT and $MOS.  If you don’t do actual commodities then look for fertilizer stocks.   I can’t say which is best or which to look for but surely there is something to tickle your interest here.  How long will it last?  Can’t say.  Do I recommend anything? NO – just food for thought – WD0AJG Grains Over Gold. Yeah, I Said It. from The Reformed Broker by Joshua M Brown <\/p>\n

“Investors are failing to recognize that both agricultural prices, such as wheat, and industrial soft <\/p>\n

“And Now the Rest of the Story – “Commodity prices – momentum shopping for investments?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","odd"],"yoast_head":"\nCommodity prices - momentum shopping for investments? - And That was How it Went<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/09\/26\/commodity-prices-momentum-shopping-for-investments\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Commodity prices - momentum shopping for investments? - And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since I have a little interest in farming I do read these a little more closely than some items and I actually have been thinking as far back as last summer that I should have been getting into things like $POT and $MOS.  If you don’t do actual commodities then look for fertilizer stocks.   I can’t say which is best or which to look for but surely there is something to tickle your interest here.  How long will it last?  Can’t say.  Do I recommend anything? NO – just food for thought – WD0AJG Grains Over Gold. 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was damn hot\u2026","author":"wd0ajg","date":"July 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Today was a field day\u2026 out to see how they do what they do\u2026 and do our part of reviewing that it is done right.\u00a0 The day was just like a lot of other days but it got damn hot during the afternoon\u2026 The mosquitos were really bad and very\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"IMG_5115","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/IMG_5115_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":11792,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/05\/04\/steam-and-smoke-and-whistles\/","url_meta":{"origin":2589,"position":1},"title":"Steam\u2026 and smoke\u2026 and Whistles!","author":"wd0ajg","date":"May 4, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"I belong to the local Amateur Radio Club and the one paying function they do every year is to help out at the Pawnee Steam Engine show\u2026 We are asked every year to man the gates as volunteers and sell tickets so the other volunteers can focus on the critical\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBS\"","block_context":{"text":"BBS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/bbs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"SAM_1285","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/SAM_1285_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":60387,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2016\/10\/13\/fix-er-upper\/","url_meta":{"origin":2589,"position":2},"title":"Fix er upper","author":"wd0ajg","date":"October 13, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, It has been a long time since I made an update.\u00a0 Lots of things going on and lot of things I just can\u2019t say much about.\u00a0 Suffice to say, just when you think things are going right you get a sucker punch.\u00a0 That was how our summer went. We\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"1-SAM_4804","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/1-SAM_4804_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/1-SAM_4804_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/1-SAM_4804_thumb.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/1-SAM_4804_thumb.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13139,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/12\/21\/up-periscope\/","url_meta":{"origin":2589,"position":3},"title":"Up Periscope!","author":"wd0ajg","date":"December 21, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Yesterday was the fun day of prep for the procedure today\u2026 Just so you know\u2026 that drink crap is nasty\u2026 causes cramps and such and you don\u2019t want to leave the very close vicinity of the toilet nor try to sneak a little gas\u2026 neither is a good idea.\u00a0 It\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Pages\"","block_context":{"text":"Pages","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/pages\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":508,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/05\/15\/good-and-bad-birds\/","url_meta":{"origin":2589,"position":4},"title":"Good and Bad birds","author":"wd0ajg","date":"May 15, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"One of our favorite things is to watch the birds in our back yard. When we moved in I put out several \"bluebird\" boxes and immediately had numerous young blue birds around the house all summer. Last summer it was even better as we had at least two sets with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Environment"","block_context":{"text":"Environment","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/category\/environment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"homepic","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/box5128.temp.domains\/~ishmaels\/blog3\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/homepic_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":3600,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/11\/30\/doctors-and-more\/","url_meta":{"origin":2589,"position":5},"title":"Doctors and more","author":"wd0ajg","date":"November 30, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Boy did I get it done up good. \u00a0I have spent the last few days either talking about, going to or paying doctors. \u00a0Sure hope I don't have to do this too many times a year. \u00a0 Most of last week, since I got home, I have had discussion with\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2589\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}