{"id":18972,"date":"2015-01-28T23:35:00","date_gmt":"2015-01-29T05:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=18972"},"modified":"2015-01-28T23:35:00","modified_gmt":"2015-01-29T05:35:00","slug":"its-good-to-be-retired-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2015\/01\/28\/its-good-to-be-retired-so-far\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s good to be retired\u2026 so far"},"content":{"rendered":"

I am so glad I am no longer involved in these happenings\u2026 :<\/p>\n

\u201cLast Tuesday, Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, which is being acquired by Halliburton for almost $35 billion in a masterful piece of Wall Street engineering, chimed in with its own job cuts; its customers in the oil patch are slashing their capital expenditures and what they will pay<\/strong> Baker Hughes<\/strong> as their revenues are plunging due to the collapsing price<\/strong> of oil. The chain reaction goes on. Baker Hughes<\/strong> is going to axe 7,000 employees, mostly in the first quarter. That\u2019s about 11.5% of its headcount!\u201d   and \u201cLast Monday, oilfield services giant Schlumberger said it would cut 9,000 jobs<\/strong>. BP and ConocoPhillips already announced major budget cuts, as have dozens of smaller companies. Charge-offs are piling up. And it\u2019s just the beginning<\/em><\/u><\/strong>.\u201d via http:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/irony-debt-fueled-oil-boom\/<\/a><\/p>\n

I have been asked, like I was some expert in the oil business, when will oil prices will come back?  I have no real clue but did put some thoughts into what I have read and know from living through 3 busts\u2026   First off the oil business has almost always been a cyclical business\u2026 we are so busy making money when it is going upwe can\u2019t see how high it has gone and can\u2019t figure out the direction of things\u2026 we are too busy spending that money to save enough to live out the busts\u2026 When it busts we always pray for another boom and promise to not \u201cpiss it off like the last time\u201d and that just never happens\u2026 So\u2026<\/p>\n

What will turn this around?<\/em><\/strong><\/font>  <\/p>\n

1. First the global oil production<\/strong> will need to drop by about 1million barrels per day. (forcing supply to equal demand, with no reserve, will start to push prices up).<\/p>\n

2. The global conditions will have to remain the same  along with #1 above. ( all bets are off if there is some nut that starts a war, or some big disaster happens to immediately cut that amount of oil from the markets)<\/p>\n

How will this happen?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

3.  Oil production<\/strong> is a declining number.  From the minute you put a new well into production<\/strong> it will continually make less from month to month and year<\/strong> to year<\/strong> until it reaches some point of \u201clong term\u201d equalization flow\u2026 then other things can happen to the well\u2026 but suffice to say just because we have production<\/strong> in the US<\/strong> at 9+ million per day doesn\u2019t mean it will stay there\u2026 so it likely will be the US<\/strong> Shale production<\/strong> that will have to drop the biggest amount of that 1 million BPD\u2026 I am assuming that it took 4 years to ramp up from say 5MPD to 9MPD and it will take about 1 to 2 years to see the 1MPD drop in production<\/strong> (some of that is because there are still \u201cdrilled\u201d well sites or \u201cfracked\u201d sites that have not been completed to production<\/strong> and typically that delay can be about 6 months). <\/p>\n

4.  It is also evident that many of the \u201ccountry run\u201d oil companies can\u2019t afford the lower price<\/strong> either but they have little alternative other than produce as they run their countries on the oil money and they for sure will be hurting and likely will max out what they can in production<\/strong> to \u201cpay<\/strong> the bills\u201d. <\/p>\n

5.  Price dictates the amount of drilling to replace declining production\u2026 right<\/strong> now\u2026in the US, the drilling is essentially being cut in half or less because the \u201cfracking\u201d production<\/strong> costs a lot more than some other types of production<\/strong> and if it doesn\u2019t pay<\/strong> to drill new \u201chigh cost\u201d wells then they are not drilled.  I have seen estimates that for shale production<\/strong> a price<\/strong> of $50 to $85 per barrel is needed to make it profitable so all those potentials are being shut down and money focused on oil finding that can be done at current prices\u2026 Note here is, that shale production<\/strong> improved by \u201cfracking\u201d is a much more rapid decline than other processes so the shale revolution will probably take the hardest hit in slow down, job loss, hard times.<\/p>\n

When will it happen? <\/em><\/strong>Your guess is as good as any\u2026<\/p>\n

6.  From the above general statement it will take another 3 to 4 months for the actual slow down in US<\/strong> drilling to really be felt \u2013 in production<\/strong> terms\u2026It will be felt in economic terms immediately\u2026 then it will take a year<\/strong> or so for declining production<\/strong> to drop global amounts the 1MPD\u2026 Then prices will start to go back up\u2026 and about a year<\/strong> or so later when prices get back above $85 or $90 , the drilling will start to ramp up but ramping up takes about 4 times longer than it takes to shut it all down so the oil price<\/strong> and basis will start back up in maybe 18 months to 2 years but the return of the economic boost all the drilling and jobs<\/strong> and such gave may not return for 3 to 5 years\u2026 the reason for extended time<\/strong> to rebuild\u2026when drillers and oil companies are burnt in such a steep drop they will be reluctant to jump back in, wouldn\u2019t you?  and many of the small companies that were in the current increase will be gone.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

At this point we have not really felt the economic sting of the falling prices\u2026 above were \u201cannouncement\u201d of cuts but the cuts will be bigger and bigger as long as the price<\/strong> stays down\u2026 and the economic outcome will be worse and worse the longer it takes to cut that 1MPD from global production\u2026 now all that said the world is a fluid thing and right<\/strong> now the global economics do not look like we are building much demand so I expect things to be flat for some time\u2026 economic growth feeds on economic growth but the inverse is true as well\u2026 <\/p>\n

So like I said at the start\u2026 I am so glad I am not living in fear that my job will be terminated, I am also glad that I have a plan, reasonable savings, and can adjust my spending because I don\u2019t have many committed costs anymore\u2026 I do fear that I don\u2019t have enough money, if things get real bad, to live on and stay retired but I will work that out when it happens\u2026 <\/p>\n

WD0AJG<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I am so glad I am no longer involved in these happenings\u2026 :<\/p>\n

\u201cLast Tuesday, Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, which is being acquired by Halliburton for almost $35 billion in a masterful piece of Wall Street engineering, chimed in with its own job cuts; its customers in the oil patch are slashing their capital expenditures and what they will pay Baker Hughes as their revenues are plunging due to the collapsing price of oil. The chain reaction goes on. Baker Hughes is going to axe 7,000 employees, mostly in the first quarter. That\u2019s about 11.5% of its headcount!\u201d   and \u201cLast Monday, oilfield services giant Schlumberger said it would cut 9,000 jobs. BP and ConocoPhillips already announced major budget cuts, as have dozens of smaller <\/p>\n

“And Now the Rest of the Story – “It\u2019s good to be retired\u2026 so far<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","odd"],"yoast_head":"\nIt\u2019s good to be retired\u2026 so far - And That was How it Went<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2015\/01\/28\/its-good-to-be-retired-so-far\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"It\u2019s good to be retired\u2026 so far - And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I am so glad I am no longer involved in these happenings\u2026 : \u201cLast Tuesday, Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, which is being acquired by Halliburton for almost $35 billion in a masterful piece of Wall Street engineering, chimed in with its own job cuts; its customers in the oil patch are slashing their capital expenditures and what they will pay Baker Hughes as their revenues are plunging due to the collapsing price of oil. 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they are doing it again\u2026","author":"wd0ajg","date":"July 7, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Latest from the WSJ\u2026on CEO pay Selectively I picked the oil and gas group as I have way too much holding in that group as far as investments\u2026 didn\u2019t sell enough when I should have but \u2026. oh well\u2026 Two in particular stick out to me\u2026comparable service company CEO\u2019s\u2026\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18337,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/18\/tulsa-geologist-theres-no-mystery-in-oklahoma-earthquakes-newson6-com-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":18972,"position":1},"title":"Tulsa Geologist: There’s No Mystery In Oklahoma Earthquakes – NewsOn6.com","author":"wd0ajg","date":"October 18, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"For all those people that want fracking and for that matter all methods of oil and gas production to stop... turn off your electricity and only use it 20% of the time... don't drive your car and start collecting fire wood... cause the 20% use of electric is about what\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBS\"","block_context":{"text":"BBS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/bbs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15947,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/05\/08\/bikes-birds-and-dragline\/","url_meta":{"origin":18972,"position":2},"title":"Bikes, birds, and dragline","author":"wd0ajg","date":"May 8, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Some times I just get behind\u2026 but after the weekend I was pretty tired so haven\u2019t accomplished a lot\u2026 I have not been able to make much progress on my Worked All States goals for the radio cause the bands have been pretty dead and some of the contacts I\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"1-20140508_115846","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/1-20140508_115846_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":58690,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2015\/09\/24\/just-rebuilding-and-hacking\/","url_meta":{"origin":18972,"position":3},"title":"Just rebuilding and hacking","author":"wd0ajg","date":"September 24, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"All I have been able to do is get parts, fix broken stuff, get parts, fix broken stuff\u2026 since the lightening strike.\u00a0 Oh and deal with the insurance.\u00a0 I can\u2019t complain as they are paying up but every time I find something and turn it in or order parts they\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Pages\"","block_context":{"text":"Pages","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/pages\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"SAM_3233","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/SAM_3233_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/SAM_3233_thumb.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/SAM_3233_thumb.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/SAM_3233_thumb.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":4995,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/02\/20\/oil-stocks-are-high-but-is-there-more\/","url_meta":{"origin":18972,"position":4},"title":"Oil stocks are high but is there more?","author":"wd0ajg","date":"February 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Took this from the BESPOKE site.\u00a0 I am wondering the same thoughts, are the oil stocks ahead of the oil price or is this a trend that can continue?\u00a0\u00a0 I question on this as I work in this industry and have a lot of investments in it.\u00a0\u00a0 I think that\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4210,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/01\/01\/energy-oil-production-and-the-outlook-or-lookout\/","url_meta":{"origin":18972,"position":5},"title":"Energy , oil production and the outlook? or LOOKOUT!","author":"wd0ajg","date":"January 1, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"From Gregor.us Happy New Year from The North Sea. Or, Secrecy By Complexity The dramatic fall of Mexican oil production, and its largest field Cantarell, is often cited as a signature example of the problems facing Non-OPEC supply. Since the production highs of 2004-2005, Mexican production has lost over 800\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/North-Sea-Crude-Oil-Production-2008-2010.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/North-Sea-Crude-Oil-Production-2008-2010.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/North-Sea-Crude-Oil-Production-2008-2010.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18972\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}