{"id":18440,"date":"2014-10-30T09:32:00","date_gmt":"2014-10-30T15:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=18440"},"modified":"2014-10-30T09:32:00","modified_gmt":"2014-10-30T15:32:00","slug":"the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/","title":{"rendered":"The Secret Oil Price Rally No One’s Talking About"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Secret Oil Price Rally No One\u2019s Talking About<\/p>\n

by Greg Guenthner<\/strong> .<\/p>\n

Posted Oct 28, 2014.<\/p>\n

Oil is now as abundant as oxygen.<\/p>\n

The world is drowning in the stuff. Oil supplies are far outstripping demand. And unloading a barrel of crude is like trying to sell sand in the Sahara.<\/p>\n

OK, so I made all that up\u2026<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s exactly what Goldman Sachs<\/strong> wants you to believe.<\/p>\n

The evil geniuses at Goldman Sachs<\/strong> just released a report<\/strong> predicting crude will plummet to $70 by next spring. The new target price<\/strong> is a full $15 lower than Goldman\u2019s previous guess from last quarter. Could the Masters of the Investment Universe have made a mistake?<\/p>\n

After the smart money cashes out of its bets against oil, it usually triggers a massive rally.<\/p>\n

Goldman says the U.S. shale oil boom has now juiced supplies to the point that we have way too much oil sloshing around. Their report<\/strong> trumpets the fact that the U.S. will pump more crude than Saudi Arabia this month\u2026 for the first time in over 40 years! And of course, there\u2019s more where that came from.<\/p>\n

So it\u2019s time to dump all your oil stocks. The oil price<\/strong> is heading to the cellar. After all, Goldman said so. And Goldman is like the pope of the financial<\/strong> world. Whatever it says is infallible. Right?<\/p>\n

I\u2019m sure you know a leading question when you see one<\/strong>. And you\u2019re right\u2026<\/p>\n

There may be a far more sinister motive behind Goldman\u2019s $70 oil price<\/strong> prediction. (Shocking, I know).<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s the deal? Here\u2019s what I think\u2026<\/p>\n

Goldman knew its report<\/strong> would go right<\/strong> into the financial<\/strong> news meat grinder. The dupes would scream that the \u201csmart money\u201d sees the oil price<\/strong> heading down even further than anticipated. Perfect \u2014 just in time for more investors to panic.<\/p>\n

\u201cHedgers have already cut their net short position by a record 205,000 contracts,\u201d explains Dana Lyons, partner at J. Lyons Fund Management, Inc.But if you bother to look at what the real smart money is doing \u2014 instead of chowing down on their prepackaged reports \u2014 you\u2019ll see that the big hedgers (some of them undoubtedly from Goldman Sachs) are actually taking profits on their oil shorts. That\u2019s right<\/strong> \u2014 while smart guys are telling you to get out, they\u2019re actually waiting to pounce. And as overzealous traders press their luck on the downside, the big boys are already aboard their private jets, counting their profits\u2026<\/p>\n

Lyons goes on to explain that there have been just five other occasions where hedgers have covered short positions as big as this one\u2026<\/p>\n

\u201cThose dates were in December 1997, September 2003, November 2008, October 2011 and June 2012,\u201d Lyons explains. \u201c The last four of those such occasions led to intermediate-term rallies in crude oil of roughly 105%, 150%, 50% and 30%, respectively . Only the 1997 instance did not lead to a rally.\u201d<\/p>\n

See a pattern here? After the smart money cashes out of its bets against oil, it usually triggers a massive rally.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s some pretty compelling evidence pointing to a bounce in the oil price<\/strong> sooner rather than later. Just yesterday morning, light crude again slipped below $80. But only for a few minutes. Before lunch, crude was back above $80\u2026<\/p>\n

Bottom line: this crude crash needs a break. And if history is any indication, we could be in store for a surprise rally here as $80 holds. Even a run higher toward $85-$90 would be a strong enough bounce to pull up some sinking energy names from the gutter \u2014 and give you a shot at quick gains.<\/p>\n

Now, I\u2019m not going to sugar-coat it \u2014 buying oil stocks down here is a bit of a risk. You should set a tight stop on this trade idea \u2014 and you shouldn\u2019t bet the farm. Consider this a small, speculative bet on a counter-trend move. But don\u2019t let those bastards at Goldman profit from the oil price<\/strong> snapback without getting in on the action yourself!<\/p>\n

Regards,<\/p>\n

Greg Guenthner<\/strong> for The Daily Reckoning<\/p>\n

P.S.  I continued this conversation in today\u2019s issue of The Rude Awakening e-letter. In addition to this potential bounce in the oil price, I gave readers one<\/strong> other important trend to follow, 5 specific numbers to watch, and 3 specific chances to discover real, actionable stock<\/strong> picks. All of that and more comes packed in every single issue of  The Rude Awakening \u2014 all completely FREE. Click here now to sign up for FREE and you\u2019ll get regular updates, every trading day, right<\/strong> around the opening bell.<\/p>\n

You May Also Like:<\/p>\n

A Crime That Pays Huge Dividends With No Consequences by Chris Mayer .<\/p>\n

Posted May 21, 2014.<\/p>\n

You can count the number of people who went to jail over the 2008 financial<\/strong> crisis on one<\/strong> hand. Which is strange considering the U.S. loves to put people in jail. But as one<\/strong> author discovered in his most recent book, having the right<\/strong> connections and a big enough bank account, can protect you from even the worst crimes. Chris Mayer explores…<\/p>\n

Greg Guenthner, CMT, is the managing editor of The Rude Awakening. Greg is a member of the Market Technicians Association and holds the Chartered Market Technician designation.<\/p>\n

======================================================================================================================================<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

I sure hope this guy is right<\/strong> but he looks too young to fully understand that the oil business is cyclical.and pinning it all on Goldman??? well that is a stretch.. <\/p>\n

I was once told it runs like the sun spots , "in an 11 year<\/strong> cycle" ,  My hope is that it has broken that cycle?  I don’t think that is right<\/strong> but I do believe it is a cycle<\/strong> like most commodities and that it is more linked to investment-profit-demand… There is a lot of investment when the profit is higher and that was caused by demand being greater than the very recent past availability.  Once the production meets demand then investment goes down because the price<\/strong> has gone down and that starts the cycle<\/strong> over?  There is a good article on cycles here: Understanding oil cycles .<\/a>  He explains that maybe we are entering a new paradigm?  I am not sure I believe all that but I feel that we still have some oil cycles left and we are probably in a down move but maybe not a bust?  for the near term future\u2026 his conclusion I do agree with  <\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, we may still have one<\/strong> or two more cycles of boom and bust before we truly enter the new paradigm I have described here. The busts won\u2019t take oil back down to $25, but it could drift down somewhat from here until demand catches back up. Investors have to be aware of the risks of a slight pullback this year, and invest accordingly. This portion of the cycle<\/strong> is not a place where investors want to be particularly aggressive.\u201d<\/p>\n

This next cycle<\/strong> article says we have till 2023 in the current cycle?    I am not sure I believe that but he says it is 40 year cycles?<\/a>  way too long in my humble opinion.<\/p>\n

For more thinking fodder review these easy available charts on oil price<\/strong> and demand\u2026 then guess like me at the outcome..<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"oilprice0908\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Average_Annual_Price_of_West_Texas\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"2014-OECD-non-OECD-consumption\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"2014-global-oil-consumption-over-production-gap\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

If you really want some more in-depth study on oil price<\/strong> analysis??? http:\/\/www.wtrg.com\/prices.htm<\/a><\/p>\n

WD0AJG<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Secret Oil Price Rally No One\u2019s Talking About<\/p>\n

by Greg Guenthner .<\/p>\n

Posted Oct 28, 2014.<\/p>\n

Oil is now as abundant as oxygen.<\/p>\n

The world is drowning in the stuff. Oil supplies are far outstripping demand. And unloading a barrel of crude is like trying to sell sand in the Sahara.<\/p>\n

OK, so I made all that up\u2026<\/p>\n

But that\u2019s exactly what Goldman Sachs wants you to believe.<\/p>\n

The evil geniuses at Goldman Sachs just released a report predicting crude will plummet to $70 by next spring. The new target price is a full $15 lower than Goldman\u2019s previous guess from last quarter. Could the Masters of the Investment Universe have made a mistake?<\/p>\n

After the smart money cashes out of its bets against <\/p>\n

“And Now the Rest of the Story – “The Secret Oil Price Rally No One’s Talking About<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","odd"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Secret Oil Price Rally No One's Talking About - And That was How it Went<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Secret Oil Price Rally No One's Talking About - And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Secret Oil Price Rally No One\u2019s Talking About by Greg Guenthner . Posted Oct 28, 2014. Oil is now as abundant as oxygen. The world is drowning in the stuff. Oil supplies are far outstripping demand. And unloading a barrel of crude is like trying to sell sand in the Sahara. OK, so I made all that up\u2026 But that\u2019s exactly what Goldman Sachs wants you to believe. The evil geniuses at Goldman Sachs just released a report predicting crude will plummet to $70 by next spring. The new target price is a full $15 lower than Goldman\u2019s previous guess from last quarter. Could the Masters of the Investment Universe have made a mistake? 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After the smart money cashes out of its bets against \"And Now the Rest of the Story - \"The Secret Oil Price Rally No One’s Talking About","og_url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/","og_site_name":"And That was How it Went","article_published_time":"2014-10-30T15:32:00+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/oilprice0908_thumb.gif","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"wd0ajg","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@wd0ajg","twitter_site":"@wd0ajg","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"wd0ajg","Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/"},"author":{"name":"wd0ajg","@id":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/e09620d4264e5cd90e30305809ea2462"},"headline":"The Secret Oil Price Rally No One’s Talking About","datePublished":"2014-10-30T15:32:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/"},"wordCount":1220,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/e09620d4264e5cd90e30305809ea2462"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/oilprice0908_thumb.gif","inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/","url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2014\/10\/30\/the-secret-oil-price-rally-no-ones-talking-about\/","name":"The Secret Oil Price Rally No One's Talking About - 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NEWS IN BRIEF \u00bb Report: Last Time Anyone Actually Rose To The Occasion Was 2002 Goldman Sachs Announces They\u2019re Blowing Up A Nursing Home And There\u2019s Nothing Anyone Can Do About\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5222,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/03\/07\/stupid-people-say-stupid-things\/","url_meta":{"origin":18440,"position":1},"title":"Stupid People say Stupid Things!","author":"wd0ajg","date":"March 7, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"It is constantly amazing to me that \u201ceducated\u201d people can be so stupid.\u00a0 On a recent news items they were interviewing people about why the price of oil is so high.\u00a0 A common statement is \u201cThose big oil companies are doing it on purpose\u201d.\u00a0 Damn that has been around for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBS\"","block_context":{"text":"BBS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/bbs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12163,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\/","url_meta":{"origin":18440,"position":2},"title":"The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel","author":"wd0ajg","date":"May 25, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Long but good read about oil production and price. Who really has the power of pricing? There\u2019s been a lot of excitement in the past year over the rise of North American oil production and the promise of increased oil production across the whole of the Americas in the years\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production 2005-2012","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5053,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/02\/23\/from-gregor-us-gotta-agree-we-aint-got-no-spare-capacity\/","url_meta":{"origin":18440,"position":3},"title":"From Gregor.US\u2026 Gotta agree we ain\u2019t got no spare capacity.","author":"wd0ajg","date":"February 23, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"There is not much else that can be said, but from a very low, in the field, perspective \u2013 several of the OPEC countries have had mandates to increase their production capacity and have been spending more money trying to accomplish that.\u00a0 Yet they continue to produce at the same\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/OECD-Regional-Inventories-IEA-PAris-OMR-Report-13-JAN-2011.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":12829,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/10\/01\/conflicting-views-or\/","url_meta":{"origin":18440,"position":4},"title":"Conflicting views Or?","author":"wd0ajg","date":"October 1, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"I pulled both of these notes from my \u201clinkedin\u201d page.\u00a0 They were stacked on top of each other so which way is it?\u00a0 UP or Down? \u00a0 News trending in Oil & Energy: Crude Oil Poised for Quarterly Gain as U.S. Spending Increases\u00a0 Bloomberg.com Oil headed for the biggest quarterly\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12858,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/10\/11\/explain-this\/","url_meta":{"origin":18440,"position":5},"title":"Explain this?","author":"wd0ajg","date":"October 11, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"From BeSpoke Investment Group\u2026 If Crude Inventories are up this much over average???? Why are Gasoline inventories so low???? \u00a0 I know some ideas are 1.\u00a0 We are exporting a lot more of what we make because we do have a big inventory of raw product? 2.\u00a0 The percentage of\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"Crude Oil 101112","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/Crude-Oil-101112_thumb.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18440\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}