{"id":12163,"date":"2012-05-25T20:59:53","date_gmt":"2012-05-26T02:59:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/?p=12163"},"modified":"2012-05-25T20:59:53","modified_gmt":"2012-05-26T02:59:53","slug":"the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\/","title":{"rendered":"The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Long but good read about oil <strong>production<\/strong> and <strong>price<\/strong>. Who really has the power of <strong>pricing<\/strong>? <\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s been a lot of <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>excitement<\/strong> in the past year over the rise of North American oil <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>production<\/strong> and the promise of increased oil <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>production<\/strong> across the <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>whole<\/strong> of the Americas in the years to come. National security experts and other geo-political observers have waxed poetic at the thought of this emerging, hemispheric strength in energy supply.  <\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s less discussed, however, is the negligible effect this supply swing is having on lowering the <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>price<\/strong> of oil, due to the fact that, combined with <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>OPEC<\/strong> production, aggregate global <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>production<\/strong> remains mostly flat.  <\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s another component to this new belief in the changing global <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>landscape<\/strong> for oil: the dawning awareness that OPEC\u2019s power has finally gone into <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>decline<\/strong>. You can read the celebration of OPEC\u2019s waning in power in practically every publication from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foreignpolicy.com\/articles\/2011\/08\/15\/the_americas_not_the_middle_east_will_be_the_world_capital_of_energy\">Foreign Policy<\/a> to various political blogs and op-eds. David Ignatius of the <em>Washington Post <\/em>wrapped up nearly all of the recent claims in a nice bundle in his May 4, 2012 piece, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/an-economic-boom-ahead\/2012\/05\/04\/gIQAbj5K2T_story.html\">An Economic Boom Ahead?<\/a>, when he quoted <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>PFC<\/strong> Energy\u2019s David West:<\/p>\n<p>Best comment here is:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile it\u2019s true that the Americas hold great promise to convert natural gas resources to higher <strong class='StrictlyAutoTagBold'>production<\/strong> levels, that is not the case with oil. The celebration of a geo-political swing in energy power therefore misses a crucial point: <strong>No region \u2014 from OPEC to Non-OPEC, from Africa to Russia \u2014 has the single-handed ability to lower the price of oil now, because none can bring on new supply quickly enough for a long-enough sustained period of time.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/JCu2Ag\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; display: inline; border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px\" title=\"1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production 2005-2012\" border=\"0\" alt=\"1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production 2005-2012\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png?resize=588%2C393\" width=\"588\" height=\"393\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long but good read about oil production and price. Who really has the power of pricing? <\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s been a lot of excitement in the past year over the rise of North American oil production and the promise of increased oil production across the whole of the Americas in the years to come. National security experts and other geo-political observers have waxed poetic at the thought of this emerging, hemispheric strength in energy supply. <\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s less discussed, however, is the negligible effect this supply swing is having on lowering the price of oil, due to the fact that, combined with OPEC production, aggregate global production remains mostly flat. <\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s another component to this new belief in the changing global landscape for oil: <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\/\">&#8220;And Now the Rest of the Story &#8211; &#8220;The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","odd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel - And That was How it Went<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel - And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Long but good read about oil production and price. Who really has the power of pricing? There\u2019s been a lot of excitement in the past year over the rise of North American oil production and the promise of increased oil production across the whole of the Americas in the years to come. National security experts and other geo-political observers have waxed poetic at the thought of this emerging, hemispheric strength in energy supply. What\u2019s less discussed, however, is the negligible effect this supply swing is having on lowering the price of oil, due to the fact that, combined with OPEC production, aggregate global production remains mostly flat. But there\u2019s another component to this new belief in the changing global landscape for oil: &quot;And Now the Rest of the Story - &quot;The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/05\/25\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"And That was How it Went\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-05-26T02:59:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"wd0ajg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@wd0ajg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@wd0ajg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"wd0ajg\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/2012\\\/05\\\/25\\\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/2012\\\/05\\\/25\\\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"wd0ajg\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e09620d4264e5cd90e30305809ea2462\"},\"headline\":\"The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-05-26T02:59:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/2012\\\/05\\\/25\\\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":283,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e09620d4264e5cd90e30305809ea2462\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/2012\\\/05\\\/25\\\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2012\\\/05\\\/1-OPEC-Crude-Oil-Production-2005-2012.png\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/2012\\\/05\\\/25\\\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/2012\\\/05\\\/25\\\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.ishmaels.net\\\/blog\\\/2012\\\/05\\\/25\\\/the-cruel-math-of-the-marginal-barrel\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Cruel Math of the Marginal Barrel - 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Or, Secrecy By Complexity The dramatic fall of Mexican oil production, and its largest field Cantarell, is often cited as a signature example of the problems facing Non-OPEC supply. Since the production highs of 2004-2005, Mexican production has lost over 800\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/North-Sea-Crude-Oil-Production-2008-2010.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/North-Sea-Crude-Oil-Production-2008-2010.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gregor.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/12\/North-Sea-Crude-Oil-Production-2008-2010.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9012,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2011\/12\/10\/global-oil-production\/","url_meta":{"origin":12163,"position":2},"title":"Global Oil production","author":"wd0ajg","date":"December 10, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Pulled this from the Gregor.Us blog.\u00a0 He does a good job of tracking the oil production, and prices and visiting the economy associated.\u00a0 \u00a0 As he said, for 6 years now the predicting people have said that the price of oil will come down.\u00a0 I wonder when that is going\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBS\"","block_context":{"text":"BBS","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/tag\/bbs\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18972,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2015\/01\/28\/its-good-to-be-retired-so-far\/","url_meta":{"origin":12163,"position":3},"title":"It\u2019s good to be retired\u2026 so far","author":"wd0ajg","date":"January 28, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I am so glad I am no longer involved in these happenings\u2026 : \u201cLast Tuesday, Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes, which is being acquired by Halliburton for almost $35 billion in a masterful piece of Wall Street engineering, chimed in with its own job cuts; its customers in the oil\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":344,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2010\/04\/03\/you-see-what-you-want-to\/","url_meta":{"origin":12163,"position":4},"title":"You see what you want to&#8230;.","author":"wd0ajg","date":"April 3, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"In today\u2019s world of arguments and discussion - each side can only see what they want to see. There are not many open receptors for differing thoughts. Cases in point - Global Warming, Peak Oil, Republican vs. Democrat.... and on. My title could also read \"figures never lie but liars\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Life&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Life","link":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/category\/life-and-or-living-daily\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9600,"url":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/2012\/01\/15\/us-oil-use-and-dependence\/","url_meta":{"origin":12163,"position":5},"title":"US oil use and dependence","author":"wd0ajg","date":"January 15, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"We still use too much fossil based energy here.\u00a0 We are a rich nation due in part to the abundant Natural Resources we have versus the population.\u00a0 Not everyone is rich though and it hurts some more than others when energy or food costs spike up.\u00a0 That all said, I\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.growthstockwire.com\/images\/GSW1-11.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.growthstockwire.com\/images\/GSW1-11.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/files.growthstockwire.com\/images\/GSW1-11.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12163","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12163"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12163\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12163"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12163"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ishmaels.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12163"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}